BCHistogramFitter.cxx

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/*
 * Copyright (C) 2008, Daniel Kollar and Kevin Kroeninger.
 * All rights reserved.
 *
 * For the licensing terms see doc/COPYING.
 */

// ---------------------------------------------------------

#include <TH1D.h>
#include <TF1.h>
#include <TGraph.h>
#include <TString.h>
#include <TPad.h>
#include <TRandom3.h>
#include <TLegend.h>
#include <TMath.h>
#include <Math/ProbFuncMathCore.h> //for ROOT::Math namespace
#include <TString.h>

#include "BCLog.h"
#include "BCDataSet.h"
#include "BCDataPoint.h"
#include "BCMath.h"

#include "BCHistogramFitter.h"

// ---------------------------------------------------------

BCHistogramFitter::BCHistogramFitter() :
   BCModel("HistogramFitter")
{
   fHistogram = 0;
   fFitFunction = 0;

   // set default options and values
   MCMCSetNIterationsRun(2000);
   SetFillErrorBand();
   fFlagIntegration = true;
   flag_discrete = true;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

BCHistogramFitter::BCHistogramFitter(TH1D * hist, TF1 * func) :
   BCModel("HistogramFitter")
{
   fHistogram = 0;
   fFitFunction = 0;

   SetHistogram(hist);
   SetFitFunction(func);

   MCMCSetNIterationsRun(2000);
   SetFillErrorBand();
   fFlagIntegration = true;
   flag_discrete = true;

   fHistogramExpected = 0;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::SetHistogram(TH1D * hist)
{
   // check if histogram exists
   if (!hist) {
      BCLog::Out(BCLog::error, BCLog::error,
            "BCHistogramFitter::SetHistogram() : TH1D not created.");
      return 0;
   }

   // set pointer to histogram
   fHistogram = hist;

   // create a data set. this is necessary in order to calculate the
   // error band. the data set contains as many data points as there
   // are bins.
   BCDataSet * ds = new BCDataSet();

   // create data points and add them to the data set.
   // the x value is the lower edge of the bin, and
   // the y value is the bin count
   int nbins = fHistogram->GetNbinsX();
   for (int i = 0; i < nbins; ++i) {
      BCDataPoint* dp = new BCDataPoint(2);
      dp ->SetValue(0, fHistogram->GetBinLowEdge(i + 1));
      dp ->SetValue(1, fHistogram->GetBinContent(i + 1));
      ds->AddDataPoint(dp);
   }

   // set the new data set.
   SetDataSet(ds);

   // calculate the lower and upper edge in x.
   double xmin = hist->GetBinLowEdge(1);
   double xmax = hist->GetBinLowEdge(nbins + 1);

   // calculate the minimum and maximum range in y.
   double histymin = hist->GetMinimum();
   double histymax = hist->GetMaximum();

   // calculate the minimum and maximum of the function value based on
   // the minimum and maximum value in y.
   double ymin = TMath::Max(0., histymin - 5. * sqrt(histymin));
   double ymax = histymax + 5. * sqrt(histymax);

   // set the data boundaries for x and y values.
   SetDataBoundaries(0, xmin, xmax);
   SetDataBoundaries(1, ymin, ymax);

   // set the indeces for fitting.
   SetFitFunctionIndices(0, 1);

   // no error
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::SetHistogramExpected(
      const std::vector<double>& parameters)
{
   //clear up previous memory
   if (fHistogramExpected) {
      delete fHistogramExpected;
   }
   //copy all properties from the data histogram
   fHistogramExpected = new TH1D(*fHistogram);

   // get the number of bins
   int nBins = fHistogramExpected->GetNbinsX();

   // get bin width
   double dx = fHistogramExpected->GetBinWidth(1);

   //set the parameters of fit function
   fFitFunction->SetParameters(&parameters[0]);

   // get function value of lower bin edge
   double fedgelow = fFitFunction->Eval(fHistogramExpected->GetBinLowEdge(1));

   // loop over all bins, skip underflow
   for (int ibin = 1; ibin <= nBins; ++ibin) {
      // get upper bin edge
      double xedgehi = fHistogramExpected->GetBinLowEdge(ibin) + dx;

      //expected count
      double yexp = 0.;

      // use ROOT's TH1D::Integral method
      if (fFlagIntegration)
         yexp = fFitFunction->Integral(xedgehi - dx, xedgehi);

      // use linear interpolation
      else {
         // get function value at upper bin edge
         double fedgehi = fFitFunction->Eval(xedgehi);
         yexp = fedgelow * dx + (fedgehi - fedgelow) * dx / 2.;

         // make the upper edge the lower edge for the next iteration
         fedgelow = fedgehi;
      }

      //write the expectation for the bin
      fHistogramExpected->SetBinContent(ibin, yexp);

      //avoid automatic error as sqrt(yexp), used e.g. in Kolmogorov correction factor
      fHistogramExpected->SetBinError(ibin, 0.0);

      // but the data under this model have that sqrt(yexp) uncertainty
      fHistogram->SetBinError(ibin, sqrt(yexp));

   }
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::SetFitFunction(TF1 * func)
{
   // check if function exists
   if (!func) {
      BCLog::Out(BCLog::error, BCLog::error,
            "BCHistogramFitter::SetFitFunction() : TF1 not created.");
      return 0;
   }

   // set the function
   fFitFunction = func;

   // update the model name to contain the function name
   SetName(TString::Format("HistogramFitter with %s", fFitFunction->GetName()));

   // reset parameters
   fParameterSet->clear();

   // get the new number of parameters
   int n = func->GetNpar();

   // add parameters
   for (int i = 0; i < n; ++i) {
      double xmin;
      double xmax;

      func->GetParLimits(i, xmin, xmax);

      AddParameter(func->GetParName(i), xmin, xmax);
   }

   // set flat prior for all parameters by default
   SetPriorConstantAll();

   return GetNParameters();
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

BCHistogramFitter::~BCHistogramFitter()
{
   delete fHistogramExpected;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

/*
 double BCHistogramFitter::LogAPrioriProbability(std::vector<double> parameters)
 {
 // using flat probability in all parameters
 double logprob = 0.;
 for (unsigned int i = 0; i < GetNParameters(); i++)
 logprob -= log(GetParameter(i)->GetRangeWidth());

 return logprob;
 }
 */

// ---------------------------------------------------------

double BCHistogramFitter::LogLikelihood(std::vector<double> params)
{
   // initialize probability
   double loglikelihood = 0;

   // set the parameters of the function
   fFitFunction->SetParameters(&params[0]);

   // get the number of bins
   int nbins = fHistogram->GetNbinsX();

   // get bin width
   double dx = fHistogram->GetBinWidth(1);

   // get function value of lower bin edge
   double fedgelow = fFitFunction->Eval(fHistogram->GetBinLowEdge(1));

   // loop over all bins
   for (int ibin = 1; ibin <= nbins; ++ibin) {
      // get upper bin edge
      double xedgehi = fHistogram->GetBinLowEdge(ibin) + dx;

      // get function value at upper bin edge
      double fedgehi = fFitFunction->Eval(xedgehi);

      // get the number of observed events
      double y = fHistogram->GetBinContent(ibin);

      double yexp = 0.;

      // use ROOT's TH1D::Integral method
      if (fFlagIntegration)
         yexp = fFitFunction->Integral(xedgehi - dx, xedgehi);

      // use linear interpolation
      else {
         yexp = fedgelow * dx + (fedgehi - fedgelow) * dx / 2.;

         // make the upper edge the lower edge for the next iteration
         fedgelow = fedgehi;
      }

      // get the value of the Poisson distribution
      loglikelihood += BCMath::LogPoisson(y, yexp);
   }

   // // get bin boundaries
   // double xmin = fHistogram->GetBinLowEdge(ibin);
   // double xmax = fHistogram->GetBinLowEdge(ibin+1);

   // // get the number of observed events
   // double y = fHistogram->GetBinContent(ibin);

   // // get the number of expected events
   // double yexp = fFitFunction->Integral(xmin, xmax);

   // // get the value of the Poisson distribution
   // loglikelihood += BCMath::LogPoisson(y, yexp);

   return loglikelihood;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

double BCHistogramFitter::FitFunction(std::vector<double> x,
      std::vector<double> params)
{
   // set the parameters of the function
   fFitFunction->SetParameters(&params[0]);

   return fFitFunction->Eval(x[0]) * fHistogram->GetBinWidth(
         fHistogram->FindBin(x[0]));
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::Fit(TH1D * hist, TF1 * func)
{
   // set histogram
   if (hist)
      SetHistogram(hist);
   else {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::Fit : Histogram not defined.");
      return 0;
   }

   // set function
   if (func)
      SetFitFunction(func);
   else {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::Fit : Fit function not defined.");
      return 0;
   }

   return Fit();
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::Fit()
{
   // set histogram
   if (!fHistogram) {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::Fit : Histogram not defined.");
      return 0;
   }

   // set function
   if (!fFitFunction) {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::Fit : Fit function not defined.");
      return 0;
   }

   // perform marginalization
   MarginalizeAll();

   // maximize posterior probability, using the best-fit values close
   // to the global maximum from the MCMC
   FindModeMinuit(GetBestFitParameters(), -1);

   // calculate the p-value using the fast MCMC algorithm
   double pvalue;
   if (CalculatePValueFast(GetBestFitParameters(), pvalue))
      fPValue = pvalue;
   else
      BCLog::OutWarning(
            "BCHistogramFitter::Fit : Could not use the fast p-value evaluation.");

   // print summary to screen
   PrintShortFitSummary();

   // no error
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

void BCHistogramFitter::DrawFit(const char * options, bool flaglegend)
{
   if (!fHistogram) {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::DrawFit : Histogram not defined.");
      return;
   }

   if (!fFitFunction) {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::DrawFit : Fit function not defined.");
      return;
   }

   if (!fErrorBandXY || fBestFitParameters.empty()) {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::DrawFit : Fit not performed yet.");
      return;
   }

   // check wheather options contain "same"
   TString opt = options;
   opt.ToLower();

   // if not same, draw the histogram first to get the axes
   if (!opt.Contains("same"))
      fHistogram->Draw(opt.Data());

   // draw the error band as central 68% probability interval
   fErrorBand = GetErrorBandGraph(0.16, 0.84);
   fErrorBand->Draw("f same");

   // now draw the histogram again since it was covered by the band
   fHistogram->Draw(TString::Format("%ssame", opt.Data()));

   // draw the fit function on top
   fGraphFitFunction = GetFitFunctionGraph(GetBestFitParameters());
   fGraphFitFunction->SetLineColor(kRed);
   fGraphFitFunction->SetLineWidth(2);
   fGraphFitFunction->Draw("l same");

   // draw legend
   if (flaglegend) {
      TLegend * legend = new TLegend(0.25, 0.75, 0.55, 0.95);
      legend->SetBorderSize(0);
      legend->SetFillColor(kWhite);
      legend->AddEntry(fHistogram, "Data", "L");
      legend->AddEntry(fGraphFitFunction, "Best fit", "L");
      legend->AddEntry(fErrorBand, "Error band", "F");
      legend->Draw();
   }

   gPad->RedrawAxis();
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------
int BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueFast(std::vector<double> par,
      double &pvalue, int nIterations)
{
   //use NULL pointer for no callback
   return CalculatePValueFast(par, 0, pvalue,  nIterations);
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------
int BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueFast(std::vector<double> par, BCHistogramFitterToyDataInterface* callback,
      double &pvalue,  int nIterations)
{
   // check size of parameter vector
   if (par.size() != GetNParameters()) {
      BCLog::OutError(
            "BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueFast : Number of parameters is inconsistent.");
      return 0;
   }

   // check if histogram exists
   if (!fHistogram) {
      BCLog::OutError(
            "BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueFast : Histogram not defined.");
      return 0;
   }

   // define temporary variables
   int nbins = fHistogram->GetNbinsX();

   std::vector<int> histogram;
   std::vector<double> expectation;
   histogram.assign(nbins, 0);
   expectation.assign(nbins, 0);

   double logp = 0;
   double logp_start = 0;
   int counter_pvalue = 0;

   //update the expected number of events for all bins
   SetHistogramExpected(par);

   // define starting distribution as histogram with most likely entries
   for (int ibin = 0; ibin < nbins; ++ibin) {

      // get the number of expected events
      double yexp = fHistogramExpected->GetBinContent(ibin + 1);

      //most likely observed value = int(expected value)
      histogram[ibin] = int(yexp);
      expectation[ibin] = yexp;

      // calculate test statistic (= likelihood of entire histogram) for starting distr.
      logp += BCMath::LogPoisson(double(int(yexp)), yexp);
      //statistic of the observed data set
      logp_start += BCMath::LogPoisson(fHistogram->GetBinContent(ibin + 1),
            yexp);
   }

   // loop over iterations
   for (int iiter = 0; iiter < nIterations; ++iiter) {
      // loop over bins
      for (int ibin = 0; ibin < nbins; ++ibin) {
         // random step up or down in statistics for this bin
         double ptest = fRandom->Rndm() - 0.5;

         // increase statistics by 1
         if (ptest > 0) {
            // calculate factor of probability
            double r = expectation.at(ibin) / double(histogram.at(ibin) + 1);

            // walk, or don't (this is the Metropolis part)
            if (fRandom->Rndm() < r) {
               histogram[ibin] = histogram.at(ibin) + 1;
               logp += log(r);
            }
         }

         // decrease statistics by 1
         else if (ptest <= 0 && histogram[ibin] > 0) {
            // calculate factor of probability
            double r = double(histogram.at(ibin)) / expectation.at(ibin);

            // walk, or don't (this is the Metropolis part)
            if (fRandom->Rndm() < r) {
               histogram[ibin] = histogram.at(ibin) - 1;
               logp += log(r);
            }
         }
      } // end of looping over bins

      //one new toy data set is created
      //call user interface to calculate arbitrary statistic's distribution
      if (callback)
         (*callback)(expectation, histogram);

      // increase counter
      if (logp < logp_start)
         counter_pvalue++;

   } // end of looping over iterations

   // calculate p-value
   pvalue = double(counter_pvalue) / double(nIterations);

   // no error
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueLikelihood(std::vector<double> par,
      double &pvalue)
{
   // initialize test statistic -2*lambda
   double logLambda = 0.0;

   //Calculate expected counts to compare with
   SetHistogramExpected(par);

   for (int ibin = 1; ibin <= fHistogram->GetNbinsX(); ++ibin) {

      // get the number of observed events
      double y = fHistogram->GetBinContent(ibin);

      // get the number of expected events
      double yexp = fHistogramExpected->GetBinContent(ibin);

      // get the contribution from this datapoint
      if (y == 0)
         logLambda += yexp;
      else
         logLambda += yexp - y + y * log(y / yexp);
   }

   // rescale
   logLambda *= 2.0;

   // compute degrees of freedom for Poisson case
   int nDoF = GetNDataPoints() - GetNParameters();

   //p value from chi^2 distribution, returns zero if logLambda < 0
   fPValueNDoF = TMath::Prob(logLambda, nDoF);
   pvalue = fPValueNDoF;

   // no error
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueLeastSquares(std::vector<double> par,
      double &pvalue, bool weightExpect)
{
   // initialize test statistic chi^2
   double chi2 = 0.0;

   //Calculate expected counts to compare with
   SetHistogramExpected(par);

   for (int ibin = 1; ibin <= fHistogram->GetNbinsX(); ++ibin) {

      // get the number of observed events
      double y = fHistogram->GetBinContent(ibin);

      // get the number of expected events
      double yexp = fHistogramExpected->GetBinContent(ibin);

      //convert 1/0.0 into 1 for weighted sum
      double weight;
      if (weightExpect)
         weight = (yexp > 0) ? yexp : 1.0;
      else
         weight = (y > 0) ? y : 1.0;

      // get the contribution from this datapoint
      chi2 += (y - yexp) * (y - yexp) / weight;
   }

   // compute degrees of freedom for Poisson case
   int nDoF = GetNDataPoints() - GetNParameters();

   // p value from chi^2 distribution, returns zero if logLambda < 0
   fPValueNDoF = TMath::Prob(chi2, nDoF);
   pvalue = fPValueNDoF;

   // no error
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

int BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueKolmogorov(std::vector<double> par,
      double& pvalue)
{
   if (!fHistogramExpected || !fHistogram) {
      BCLog::OutError("BCHistogramFitter::CalculatePValueKolmogorov: "
         "Please define the reference distribution by calling \n"
         "BCHistogramFitter::SetHistogramExpected() first!");
      return 0;
   }

   //update expected counts with current parameters
   SetHistogramExpected(par);

   //perform the test
   pvalue = fHistogramExpected->KolmogorovTest(fHistogram);

   fPValue = pvalue;

   // no error
   return 1;
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------

double BCHistogramFitter::CDF(const std::vector<double>& parameters, int index,
      bool lower)
{

   if (parameters.empty())
      BCLog::OutWarning("BCHistogramFitter::CDF: parameter vector empty!");
   //histogram stores underflow in bin 0, so datapoint 0 is in bin 1
   index++;

   // get the number of observed events (should be integer)
   double yObs = fHistogram->GetBinContent(index);

   // if(double( (unsigned int)yObs)==yObs)
   //    BCLog::OutWarning(Form(
   //          "BCHistogramFitter::CDF: using bin count %f that  is not an integer!",yObs));

   // get function value of lower bin edge
   double edgeLow = fHistogram->GetBinLowEdge(index);
   double edgeHigh = edgeLow + fHistogram->GetBinWidth(index);

   // expectation value of this bin
   double yExp = 0.0;

   // use ROOT's TH1D::Integral method
   if (fFlagIntegration)
      yExp = fFitFunction->Integral(edgeLow, edgeHigh, &parameters[0]);

   // use linear interpolation
   else {
      double dx = fHistogram->GetBinWidth(index);
      double fEdgeLow = fFitFunction->Eval(edgeLow);
      double fEdgeHigh = fFitFunction->Eval(edgeHigh);
      yExp = fEdgeLow * dx + (fEdgeHigh - fEdgeLow) * dx / 2.;
   }

   // usually Poisson bins do not agree with fixed probability bins
   // so choose where it should belong

   if (lower) {
      if ((int) yObs >= 1)
         return ROOT::Math::poisson_cdf((unsigned int) (yObs - 1), yExp);
      else
         return 0.0;
   }
   // what if yObs as double doesn't reprepsent a whole number? exceptioN?
   if ((double) (unsigned int) yObs != yObs) {
      BCLog::OutWarning(Form(
            "BCHistogramFitter::CDF: Histogram values should be integer!\n"
               " Bin %d = %f", index, yObs));

      //convert randomly to integer
      // ex. yObs = 9.785 =>
      //      yObs --> 10 with P = 78.5%
      //      yObs --> 9  with P = 21.5%
      double U = fRandom->Rndm();
      double yObsLower = (unsigned int) yObs;
      if (U > (yObs - yObsLower))
         yObs = yObsLower;
      else
         yObs = yObsLower + 1;
   }

   // BCLog::OutDebug(Form("yExp= %f yObs= %f par2=%",yExp, yObs,parameters.at(2)));
   // BCLog::Out(TString::Format("yExp= %f yObs= %f par2=%",yExp, yObs,parameters.at(2)));

   return ROOT::Math::poisson_cdf((unsigned int) yObs, yExp);
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------